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Statistics | Business Cycles Finance

Statistics

Insider trading in the US ?

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chicagoECB

The ECB published a paper earlier this week pointing at potential insider trading in the US. Alexandre Kurov, Alessio Sancetta, Georg Strasser and Marketa Halova Wolfe, the co-author of Price drift before U.S. macroeconomic news: private information about public announcement?, believe to have found some evidences of insider trading.

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How good are we at forecasting employment?

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BLS

Long story short: really really bad. But there's a optimistic remark coming: we're almost as good at forecasting that we are at counting. In other words, we are bad at both, and should potentially question more heavily the reliability of monthly employment figures.

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Can statistics lie?

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That's a question that is often discussed, though not always with the necessary rigor. The general consensus is that 'you can have the statistics say whatever you want'. I strongly disagree with this statement, and I'll use a real-life example to show why.

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